Macro & Policy

One CPI report will not end 2026 market volatility as Treasury yields, oil prices, AI spending and U.S. policy risks remain.
14 min read

One CPI Report Cannot End the Market Volatility of 2026

June CPI reduced near-term Fed hike fears, but Treasury financing, oil prices, AI capital spending, the dollar and the midterm elections still shape the second-half market outlook.

Macro & Policy
Macro & PolicyCPIFederal ReserveKevin WarshU.S. TreasuryTreasury YieldsFiscal DeficitU.S. DollarAI Capital ExpenditureIranOil PricesMidterm ElectionsMarket VolatilityMacro Policy
Tokyo and New York financial markets illustrating the risk that stress in Japanese banks could precede a U.S. stock-market selloff
13 min read

Could the Next U.S. Stock Market Selloff Begin With Japanese Banks?

Bank of America’s July 2026 Flow Show points to Japanese bank stocks as a possible early warning for global markets. The signal matters only when bond yields, capital flows, the yen, credit and U.S. market breadth begin deteriorating together.

Macro & Policy
Macro & PolicyBank of AmericaMichael HartnettJapanese BanksJapanJGBU.S. Stock MarketMarket RiskGlobal LiquidityYen Carry TradeU.S. TreasuriesMacroFinancial Stability
Scott Bessent beside a global dollar network, illustrating America rewriting dollar credibility through financial power and global capital flows.
12 min read

America Is Rewriting Dollar Credibility

The U.S. is rebuilding dollar credibility through strong-dollar policy, Treasury demand, Fed uncertainty, stablecoins, AI infrastructure, and gold reserves.

Macro & Policy
Macro & PolicyScott BessentKevin WarshFederal ReserveStrong DollarTreasury MarketGoldStablecoinsAI InfrastructureEconomic StatecraftGlobal Capital FlowsU.S. Dollar